SWOD48
SPC AC 190953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A CONTINUANCE OF THE DAY 3 SCENARIO...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL ON DAY 4/SUNDAY VIA WEAKENING
SOUTHEAST STATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...SUCH
THAT 30% DAY 1 EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED.
THEREAFTER...GENERAL ECMWF/GEFS CONSENSUS IMPLIES A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH APPRECIABLE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION SPREAD AMONGST
AVAILABLE ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...AND LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONSIDERABLE GULF MOISTURE RETURN REGARDLESS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE ALSO NOT WARRANTED FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK /DAY 5
AND BEYOND/.
..GUYER.. 11/19/2009
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