SWOD48
SPC AC 220943
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE UPR FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES LATE IN
THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIRMASS SWD INTO
THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW BY THE WEEKEND... THOUGH CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS ON BOTH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. RETURN
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND. BUT...RETURNING MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED. GIVEN THE LIKELY POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE...A HIGHER-END
SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
..RACY.. 11/22/2009
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