Sunday, November 29, 2009

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 291001
SWOD48
SPC AC 291000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE U.S. DAY 4 /WED. DEC. 2/...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY DAY 5. BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW...A
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 5...AFTER WHICH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGENCE SIGNIFICANTLY.

MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST DAY 4 OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS -- WHILE
DIFFERING IN TIMING AND LOCATION -- BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ENEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL LOW TRACK...IT
APPEARS THAT A SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST ACROSS FL AND
INTO GA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS.

WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION THUS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS GA/FL DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS. DESPITE THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR
AND STRENGTH OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS.

WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE SERN
U.S. COAST BY EARLY DAY 5 /THU. DEC. 3/...AND WITH THREAT ACROSS S
FL MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DAY 5...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A DAY 4 AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 11/29/2009

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