SWOD48
SPC AC 300949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD (DAY 4 --
THU. DEC. 3) AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHIFT A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.
BY DAY 5...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE NEXT/UPSTREAM FEATURE INVOF WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW
ALREADY EVIDENT BY 12Z FRI. DEC. 4. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT/INCREASING MODEL DEVIATION WITH TIME...PREDICTABILITY
PRECLUDES ANY ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND DAY 4.
..GOSS.. 11/30/2009
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