Thursday, December 3, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030517
SWODY1
SPC AC 030515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST WED DEC 02 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NERN STATES
AND OFF THE CONUS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AS
IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS. A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST OVER S FL WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN
THE ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING...BUT TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE DEEPER
CONVERGENCE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND
WEAKENS. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD DURING THE DAY. TENDENCY FOR
THE FORCING...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITHIN A MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 12/03/2009

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