SWODY1
SPC AC 040543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST THU DEC 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS
PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NM WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SERN U.S. AND NRN GULF
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE SRN
TIP OF FL WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH SRN FL LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
...SRN FL PENINSULA...
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL
ADVANCE ENEWD THROUGH THE GULF AND CNTRL/NRN FL DURING THE DAY.
THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE TO AUGMENT LIFT AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...PRIMARILY IN COOL SECTOR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL
MOVE EAST AND INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE NRN GULF...WITH ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN NWD RETREAT
OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH SRN FL OVERNIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS IN SRN FL WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAINLY FOR VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. GIVEN WARM AIR ALOFT
AND WEAK FORCING...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 12/04/2009
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