SWODY1
SPC AC 111252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD AS /1/ GULF OF ST LAWRENCE VORTEX CONTINUES NEWD AND /2/
UPSTREAM VORTEX OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN ELONGATES WEST-TO-EAST.
EXPANSIVE MASS OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR LEFT IN WAKE OF RECENT AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE NATION.
HOWEVER...SOME THREAT OF THE STORMS WILL EXIST...MAINLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN STREAM JET THAT WILL PERSIST FROM OFF THE
CNTRL/SRN CA CST ESE TO TX.
...WRN GULF CST/LWR MS VLY...
VORT COMPLEX NOW OFF THE CA CS...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER IMPULSE FARTHER
S W OF BAJA CA...EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY E/ESE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...REACHING NE NM/W TX...RESPECTIVELY...BY 12Z SAT.
APPROACH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
WRN END OF STALLING FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/NRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
SAT. STRENGTHENING WAA WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO E TX...LA...AND PARTS
OF MS ATOP DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL SURFACE...WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MOISTURE. MOISTENING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD 30-40 KT 850 MB SWLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /ELEVATED MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ TO
SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SAT.
...CSTL CA...
LIGHTNING DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW PRESENCE OF STORMS/DEEP
CONVECTION IN VORT COMPLEX NOW APPROACHING PT CONCEPTION. THE VORT
COMPLEX DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK OF
ASSOCIATED UVV. AT ANY RATE...EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW
LVL WIND PROFILES...SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
LATER TODAY...MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE CNTRL CA CST.
...LWR GRT LKS...
LK CONVECTIVE PLUMES LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY E OF LKS
ERIE AND ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT/EARLY SAT AS LWR
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUBSIDES AND BECOMES LESS UNIDIRECTIONAL.
WITHDRAWAL OF ERN CANADIAN VORTEX WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING
OF THE INVERSION LEVEL ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE AN
ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY...OVERALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL
OTLK.
..CORFIDI.. 12/11/2009
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