Wednesday, December 16, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161250
SWODY1
SPC AC 161248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
LOW AMPLITUDE TO ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER TX AND THE NWRN GULF...WHERE
SLOWLY-MOVING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA
GRADUALLY WILL BECOME RE-ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF CST AND SERN
STATES YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
EXISTING ZONE OF EASTERLIES OVER CNTRL/SRN FL.

DRY MODIFIED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL LIMIT TSTM CHANCES OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING
OVER S FL...WHERE MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST IN WEAKLY SHEARED/WEAKLY
UNSTABLE CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT. ISOLD
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC NW CST...IN
ZONE OF ONSHORE FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR TROUGH NOW PASSING 130W.

..CORFIDI.. 12/16/2009

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