SWODY1
SPC AC 311248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU DEC 31 2009
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH EARLY FRI. ANY PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER OVER THE CONUS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SERN STATES... IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEAMPLIFYING SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE
N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THE IMPULSE SHOULD SHEAR ENE ACROSS GA AND
SC LATER TODAY AS STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NM CONTINUES ESE
ACROSS TX...LA AND...BY 12Z FRI...SRN MS.
AT THE SFC...WEAK WAVE NOW OVER THE NERN GULF LIKELY WILL REFORM OFF
THE NC CST BY THIS EVE...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SE ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SE
INTO N CNTRL FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC CSTS...
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AND TRAILING AXIS OF DEEP ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS
OF RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL SERVE TO HINDER LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF S OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST...HOWEVER
...THAT AIR MASS IMPINGING ON THE FL PANHANDLE AND THE NW FL CST
WILL REMAIN LARGELY MODIFIED POLAR IN NATURE. COUPLED WITH WEAK MID
LAPSE RATES AND THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL ...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT
DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR.
..CORFIDI.. 12/31/2009
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