SWODY1
SPC AC 161942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAS DEVELOPED WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A CONFLUENT REGIME NEAR/NORTH THROUGH WEST OF
MIAMI. DESPITE WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING...INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO INTENSIFY INTO
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS EXCEEDING
SEVERE CRITERIA STILL SEEMS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BUT CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
PREVAILING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED IN THE WATERS OFF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO EXIST OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 12/16/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009/
...SYNOPSIS...
INTRUSION OF ARCTIC SURFACE AIR WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTH FL AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER S FL. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COASTAL WA/NWRN ORE MAY
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BROADER AREA OF
SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION TODAY.
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