SWODY1
SPC AC 111626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN GULF CST/LWR MS VLY...
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. THIS WILL INCREASE INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AND LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION /PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z/...WITH MUCAPE
TO 500 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND HAIL
POTENTIAL...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ROOTED AOA 850 MB WITH LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT.
...SRN CA COAST...
CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHTNING EVIDENT JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT...FAST MOVING WAVE ON WATER VAPOR NOW
APPROACHING PT CONCEPTION. THE VORT COMPLEX DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY WELL DEPICTED IN THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...LENDING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK OF ASSOCIATED UVV. AT ANY
RATE...EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS LATER TODAY...MAINLY ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
..EVANS.. 12/11/2009
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