SWODY1
SPC AC 121625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST SAT DEC 12 2009
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AND POSSIBLY COME
ASHORE ACROSS THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...LEAVING
BROAD VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS EVOLVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION. LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ELEVATED MOIST
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FAR ERN
TX/AR/LA ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN WEAK
WARM SECTOR OVER FAR SERN LA/CENTRAL GULF COAST INDICATE SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER TOPPED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES...DESPITE INFLUX OF NEAR 70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL VEERING WIND
PROFILES/WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
...CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
INTENSE...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD. SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG ALONG NOSE OF 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL CA VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOCKED-IN WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ATOP STABLE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WITH MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..EVANS.. 12/12/2009
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