SWODY1
SPC AC 171231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLIFICATION WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD AS
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS CONTINUES SE INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS...AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WEST. IN
RESPONSE...S TX DISTURBANCE SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE TO THE CNTRL GULF
CST BY 12Z FRI AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING
WSW FLOW AHEAD OF PLNS TROUGH.
AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC CYCLONE NOW OVER THE NW GULF SHOULD TRACK ENE
TO THE AREA S OF MOBILE BAY EARLY FRI...SLIGHTLY DEEPENING IN THE
PROCESS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
INTO FL SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME...SFC PATTERN WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY WAA RAIN/STORMS...AND BY SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG LAND/SEA INTERFACES BORDERING THE
FL PENINSULA.
...PARTS OF SRN FL...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND S
FL WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF GULF SFC WAVE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND NEWD SPREAD OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER THE CNTRL
GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL W CST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN TIME OF
DAY AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. BUT GIVEN COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPRECIABLE SHEAR
/BOTH LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SMALL BOW OR
TWO AND/OR A TORNADO.
IN THE MEAN TIME...CSTL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MARKING LAND-SEA INTERFACE
ALONG THE SE FL CST SSW INTO THE EVERGLADES LIKELY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLD
WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
DURATION/SCOPE/INTENSITY OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SVR THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...EVOLVE ALONG THIS FEATURE...OR
OTHER SIMILAR LOW LVL BOUNDARIES...OVER SRN/E CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI AS WINDS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF GULF WAVE.
..CORFIDI.. 12/17/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment