SWODY2
SPC AC 030605
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST THU DEC 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SWD FROM THE WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NWRN
CONUS...UPPER IMPULSE LOCATED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF LARGER SCALE
TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SYSTEM EVOLVING FROM POSITIVELY TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED. INCREASING UVV/S AND HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS/ MS/AL REGION FRI
NIGHT.
...FL...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLOW MOVING/QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE WRN GULF EWD INTO THE SRN PENINSULA
FRIDAY. MINOR IMPULSES LOCATED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET ARE LIKELY TO
INDUCE THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD PCPN AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORMS SOUTH OF FRONT.
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE GULF. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
WAVE REACHING THE NERN GULF WATERS BY 12Z SAT...WEST OF THE
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE PENINSULA AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SAT.
..IMY.. 12/03/2009
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