Friday, December 11, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111727
SWODY2
SPC AC 111726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LOW
AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE OVER THE CONUS INTO SATURDAY. TSTM POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CA WILL BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONTAL
BAND MOVING INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
A NORTHWARD RETURNING MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE GULF...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST STATES.

...NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/S CROSSING THE
PLAINS...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF A
MARINE AIRMASS/FRONT TOWARD THE GULF COAST...MAINLY TOWARD/AFTER
DARK. WHILE INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE
WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO THE TRUE
MARINE AIRMASS APPROACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. EVEN SO...PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER...ALONG WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A TENDENCY FOR THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME...SUGGEST IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE MARINE AIRMASS TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY INLAND.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...NOTHING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
COASTAL AREAS APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 12/11/2009

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