SWODY2
SPC AC 161613
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN RICH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...WITH SOME NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
LIKELY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST BY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IN REGION OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATE CAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL APPROACH THE FL
PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...BUT NEITHER SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS UNTIL AFTER 18/12Z. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
..HART.. 12/16/2009
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