SWODY2
SPC AC 170524
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH THROUGH N-CNTRL
FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM WAVE. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS IMPULSE. THE
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST AND ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FL
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL FL
PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
...FL PENINSULA...
A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS FL IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER NRN FL THROUGH THE SERN STATES NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP NWD
DURING THE DAY...BUT NWD ADVANCE OF THE MOISTER WARM SECTOR COULD BE
LIMITED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE ERN U.S. THEREFORE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL FL
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF
WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TO
AOA 40 KT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS REASON...MORE THAN 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 12/17/2009
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