Wednesday, December 30, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300700
SWODY2
SPC AC 300659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST WED DEC 30 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
TIED TO AN AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO/ADJACENT
GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF A MODIFIED MARINE
AIRMASS...WEAK/VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER/WEAK BUOYANCY
AMIDST A WEAKLY FORCED CYCLONIC UPPER REGIME DURING THE DAY ALL
IMPLY A LIMITED CONVECTIVE VIGOR.

WITH THE APPROACH/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...TSTM VIGOR
MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PENDING THE TIMING OF THE PARENT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A NARROW MODESTLY MOIST/WARM SECTOR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. EVEN WHILE MID/HIGH
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING OWING TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...IT IS BELIEVED THAT VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...MARGINAL PREFRONTAL MOISTURE...AND NOCTURNALLY HINDERED
BUOYANCY/POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED GULF TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. AS SUCH...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 12/30/2009

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