SWODY2
SPC AC 171720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD THIS
PERIOD...EXPANDING WITH TIME AS A SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE/SHORT-WAVE
FEATURES ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD.
ONE OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE SERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ERN
GULF EARLY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...MOVING NEWD ACROSS -- OR JUST OFF -- THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...FL PENINSULA...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS FL/GA THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW A
VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS FL...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE --
CROSSING THE ERN GULF/APPROACHING FL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A
WEAKLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL HINDER
MORE APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- CONCENTRATED
INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND THEN LATER ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
WITH ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SELYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/SUSTAINED STORMS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
THUS...WITH A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
APPARENT.
..GOSS.. 12/17/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment