SWODY3
SPC AC 070722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST MON DEC 07 2009
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD BUT AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NERN STATES ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF STRONG MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS PRESENT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE
CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO FL...
WHILE STRONG...SWLY LLJ WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...POOR LAPSE RATES ON ANTICYCLONIC
SIDE OF INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET CORES WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOREOVER...DECREASING CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT /DUE TO STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHIFTING N OF
THE GREAT LAKES/ AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY TSTM
BANDS/CLUSTERS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 12/07/2009
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