SWOD48
SPC AC 110907
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO PERSIST
DAY 4-5. GFS MAINTAINS UNIFIED NRN/SRN STREAM WHILE ECMWF EXHIBITS
SPLIT FLOW . TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ALSO EXIST
AMONG THE MODELS. IN EITHER CASE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 4 IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN CANADA LATE
DAY 4 TO DAY 5. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL EXIST OVER
SRN HALF OF GULF STATES WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. IT
APPEARS STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF QUALITY WARM
SECTOR.
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES DAY 4
INTO DAY 5. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...AND THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST TO DELINEATE AN OUTLOOK AREA.
DAY 6-8
A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE
CONDITIONS INLAND.
..DIAL.. 12/11/2009
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