SWOD48
SPC AC 130832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2009
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS IS THAT QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND DAY 7 WHEN LONGER RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. A
LARGE AREA OF MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH
THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW INTO DAY 5
OR 6. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL AT LEAST DAY 7 WHEN
RICHER MOISTURE COULD BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT IN FL BY DAY 7 WOULD DEPEND ON STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF ANY SRN STREAM IMPULSES AND EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGHS WHICH CURRENTLY HAVE LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 12/13/2009
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