SWOD48
SPC AC 170802
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND OFFSHORE FLOW DAY 4-5 WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
DAY 6-7 MODELS INDICATE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING A
LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THIS TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. GFS IN PARTICULAR
HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND
DAY 5 IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AVAILABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS.
..DIAL.. 12/17/2009
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