MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2183

ACUS11 KWNS 020510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020510
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020510Z - 020715Z

WHILE A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM ...TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS LARGELY CONTINGENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...AS WIND PROFILES ARE
ALREADY STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BENEATH A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE. THIS FEATURE IS MIGRATING
INLAND AHEAD OF A WEAK INITIAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE APPARENTLY JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL AREAS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR A TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY NEAR/WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. THEREAFTER ...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARD THE
UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY WANE AGAIN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE APPROACH
OF STRONGER FORCING NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME ...WHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE. JUXTAPOSED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 12/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30388826 31198798 31398695 31388605 30768479 30018381
29048417 30388826

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