SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180436
FLZ000-180630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 180436Z - 180630Z
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE MIAMI AREA TO FORT
LAUDERDALE/BOCA RATON VICINITIES AND SURROUNDING I-95/URBAN
CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /1.79 INCHES PW PER 00Z OBSERVED MIAMI RAOB/ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/NEAR-SHORE
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SOUTH FL PENINSULA WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WITH
TIME...RAINFALL RATES COULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/PREDAWN
HOURS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO A DIMINISHING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT/STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND/OR THE NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM GULF
OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH PERIODIC ROTATING
STORMS NOTED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WATERSPOUT/TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LOW INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY
MODEST /BUT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING/ FLOW ABOVE 2 KM.
..GUYER.. 12/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
LAT...LON 27118029 26977987 25408022 25668046 26638030 27118029
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