SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231818
OKZ000-TXZ000-231915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK TO FAR NORTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231818Z - 231915Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN OK TO FAR NRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP /SOME
EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS/ THIS AFTERNOON...UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE THE PRESENT ISSUANCE OF A WW.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SERN KS SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK/N TX TO
WEST CENTRAL TX. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED A RECENT NNWWD
SHIFT OF A PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH
SRN KS/CENTRAL OK. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS
IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN SRN OK /JOHNSTON-ERN LOVE COUNTIES/...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EITHER SURFACE BASED OR NEAR-SURFACE BASED. ALTHOUGH VEERED SURFACE
WINDS WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY SUSTAINED STORMS MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 12/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33419753 34989714 35999688 36099591 35879516 34419522
33349592 33419753
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