SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231903
TXZ000-OKZ000-232000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX AND SERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231903Z - 232000Z
WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF E TX AND SERN OK.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF DISCRETE TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM N/NW OF VCT/HOU THROUGH MUCH OF ERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTINUED TO WARM AND
MOISTEN TODAY...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THIS REGION ARE TENDING TO
LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG/. HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT /STRONGER SHEAR OVER NERN TX/ SUGGESTS A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL INCREASE...WITH
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER NERN TX WHERE SHEAR IS
STRONGER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE AREA WILL REMAIN INTACT WITH FURTHER
INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
..PETERS.. 12/23/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
LAT...LON 30329721 32499669 34109591 34079460 33299440 32189447
30709462 30049544 29779653 30329721
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