Wednesday, January 13, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130551
SWODY1
SPC AC 130550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE SCALE SPLIT OF THE WESTERLIES PREVAILS OVER NORTH
AMERICA...ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A BIFURCATING UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE NORTHERN SPLIT/VORT
MAX MINORS WHILE ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA TO THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
UPPER JET DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA.

...CA/NV/AZ/UT...
FRONTAL BAND/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND/EASTWARD
ACROSS CA/ORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL CA COASTAL
AREAS AMIDST RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR CA TOWARD SOUTHERN
NV/WESTERN AZ/PERHAPS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE DAY ATTENDANT TO THE
DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BRUNT OF UVV/COOLING ALOFT...WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED/SURFACE
BASED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CA INTERIOR
VALLEY WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING /50S F/ MAY OCCUR
BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POCKET /AROUND -25C AT 500 MB/.

..GUYER.. 01/13/2010

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