SWODY1
SPC AC 221951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2010
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...THE SOUTHWEST...
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH
MEAGER CAPE AND A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. WITH A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN CA AND INTO S CENTRAL AZ.
..GOSS.. 01/22/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010/
...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CA/AZ/NM THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25 TO -28C AT 500MB/
ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE REGION AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ WHERE ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEAK CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM/CO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK LATER
TONIGHT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE REGION AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
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