Friday, January 15, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151941
SWODY1
SPC AC 151939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH TX...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST SCENARIO/PROBABILITIES. WITH
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTH TX PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
INLAND APPEARS VERY LOW. AS SUCH...ANY REMOTE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE TIED TO ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX...WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER BENEATH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER LOW COULD PERHAPS YIELD SOME
LOW TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL THROUGH SUNSET.

..GUYER.. 01/15/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010/

CORRECTED TSTM LINE

...DEEP SOUTH TX...
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL DIG
SLOWLY SSEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LEADING IMPULSE NOW PUSHING
INTO THE WRN GOM. SURFACE LOW NOW ALONG OR JUST OFF S PADRE ISLAND
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
STILL DIGS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SLIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...WITH MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
COASTAL BEND MAINTAINING RAIN AND LIMITED DESTABILIZATION.

CLEARING SKIES OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL LIKELY ALLOW
MODEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE PRIMARY TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WITHIN MOIST
PLUME OFFSHORE. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.

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