SWODY1
SPC AC 251924
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST MON JAN 25 2010
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DEL...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS DEVELOPING
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER ERN PA AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OFFSHORE AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH 60+ KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION LOADING MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO TRANSFER SOME
OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WILL
LIMIT OVERALL THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/25/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010/
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NC INTO SOUTH FL. THE FRONT
WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND OFF THE FL COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AND
END TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE REGIONS.
...FL...
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WILL BE HINDERED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST BY
21Z...ENDING THE THREAT.
...CA...
THE NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL CA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SOUTH OF SFO...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
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