SWODY1
SPC AC 160050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THREE
INTERACTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOWS. FIRST OF THESE -- EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER N-CENTRAL MEX -- IS WEAKENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY LOBE EVOLVES INTO DISCRETE
LOW ALOFT OVER S-CENTRAL TX. PERTURBATION OVER WRN KS -- WHICH
ORIGINATED IN NRN STREAM FLOW BELT -- WILL DIG SSEWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD WRN OK AND ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW THAT
ULTIMATELY WILL BECOME PRIMARY CYCLONE CENTER FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN PLAINS ACROSS ERN MEX.
AT SFC...CYCLONE IS DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST...AND
IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
12Z. DOUBLE-STRUCTURED WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED...WITH SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY ARCHING NEWD THEN EWD FROM LOW ACROSS N-CENTRAL GULF...AND
NRN BOUND OF BEST-MODIFIED/MARITIME-TROPICAL AIR MASS GENERALLY
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN
WELL S OF LAND OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF LOWER
VALLEY REGION.
...COASTAL LA/MS...
BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN GULF...NEAR AND N OF SFC WARM
FRONT...WHILE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS LOWER DELTA AND COASTAL PLAIN
FROM LA TO FL PANHANDLE. WITHIN THIS REGIME...GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION ...MAINLY THROUGH INCREASING THETAE ATOP ELEVATED
FRONTAL SFC...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500
J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
...DEEP S TX AND LOWER TX COAST...
TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER TX COAST AND ADJACENT
WATERS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS ALREADY MRGL INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES IN ZONE OF CAA BEHIND LOW LEVEL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ALL
SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR REMAINDER PERIOD.
..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2010
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