SWODY1
SPC AC 121913
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2010
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WEST COAST...
EARLIER THINKING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AFTER 00Z
REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION INVOF COLDEST PORTION OF TROUGH
/134W/...THOUGH CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND.
AS THIS APPROACHES THE COAST IT APPEARS THE PROSPECT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 01/12/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST TUE JAN 12 2010/
FINAL AND STRONGEST OF CURRENT SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE CENTRAL PAC COAST TONIGHT. LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED WITH THE
BAND OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG 135W REFLECTS THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD POOL WITH THE
VORT MAX VICINITY 40N 140W. PREVIOUS IMPULSES HAVE WEAKENED NEWD AS
THEY APPROACHED THE W COAST...HOWEVER WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM NEAR 160W...THE COOLER...MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN
OREGON SWD TO CENTRAL CA.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO AROUND 7C/KM TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG W OF SIERRAS AND SRN CASCADES.
CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES AND TEMPS ALOFT COOL.
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