DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240049
SWODY1
SPC AC 240048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2010

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...

...MID-SOUTH TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING EWD
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH ATTENDANT 100+ KT 500 MB JET CORE PUNCHING
INTO E TX AT 00Z. THE DISTURBANCE WILL TURN ENE INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A MUCH BROADER ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO
THE OH VLY AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES.

RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
IMPULSE. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH AND EXPECT THE 60 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE SABINE RIVER
VLY WILL ACCELERATE AND SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT.

SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-50S TO LWR 60S...HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED NWD AS FAR N AS THE
ARKLAMISS AND SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND THE
CNTRL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT.

THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT AND GIVEN ONSET OF
EVAPORATIVE/DIURNAL COOLING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...EXPECT NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT BAND OF STORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS PER 00Z LZK SOUNDING. HOWEVER...AS TYPICAL IN
THE LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AMIDST STRONG FORCING...
EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS/POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICIES COULD BECOME
A BIT MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS MATURE...WITH AT LEAST
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...00Z JAN/LCH RAOBS EXHIBIT A SUBSTANTIAL EML
THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOISTENING/LIFT. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH A LATE NIGHT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /NEAR
60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS/ MAY YIELD ADDITIONAL BANDS OF TSTMS ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN/SRN MS AND PARTS OF WRN AL AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT AN ISOLD SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH PRIMARY SVR THREAT BEING DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 01/24/2010

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