SWODY1
SPC AC 151252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SAT. LARGELY ZONAL
JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WITH MORE
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED SRN BRANCH CONTINUING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...MEXICO...AND THE NRN/WRN GULF OF MEXICO. APPROACH OF
SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR 30N/137W...AND CONTINUED SSE MOTION OF
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...SHOULD FORCE UPR LOW NOW OVER
NRN MEXICO TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/MORE
MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 12Z SAT...UPR
PATTERN SHOULD EXHIBIT AN ELONGATED TROUGH ARCING FROM WRN OK SSE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...INVERTED TROUGH NOW PRESENT E OF BRO/CRP LIKELY WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. COUPLED WITH N/S ELONGATION AND SLOW PROGRESSION
OF MEXICAN UPR LOW...DIFFUSE SFC CIRCULATION NOW OVER DEEP S TX
SHOULD REFORM E AND...LATER...NE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES S OF
HUM /IN SE LA/ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...S TX AND FAR SRN LA...
OVERNIGHT TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED ALONG AND E OF AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE S TX GULF CST. MERGING COLD POOLS WITH THE
STORMS HAVE ALLOWED THE ACTIVITY TO FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD INTO
GULF...AWAY FROM THE CST. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND SHOULD NOT
CONTINUE. THIS SETUP SHOULD KEEP THE MOST STRONGLY-MODIFIED GULF
AIR /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/...AND THE WIND PROFILES MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LVL STORM ROTATION...OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP NNE ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE
CNTRL/ERN LA CST TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. BUT ENELY ISALLOBARIC
NEAR-SFC FLOW ...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL CAA...SUGGEST THAT ANY
ACTIVITY NEARING THE LA CST WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
THUS...WHILE A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SVR
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW.
IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND MID LVL COOL
ADVECTION/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR VORT NOW S
OF THE TX BIG BEND MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS THIS AFTN
OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF DEEP S TX. COUPLED WITH MOIST LOW
LVL ENELY /UPSLOPE/ FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND.
..CORFIDI.. 01/15/2010
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