SWODY3
SPC AC 180731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND NAM-KF MODELS REMAIN THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
REACH THE TN VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE TO JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.
...SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN UPPER DIVERGENCE ZONE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SERN STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NEWD WITH LOW-MID 60F DEWPOINTS FROM SERN TX EWD TO SRN PARTS OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES AND UPPER 50F TO NEAR 60F FARTHER NORTH. THE
RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NWD ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -14C TO -15C AT 500 MB.
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN LIMITED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL AND EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN INITIALLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST MAY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CONTINUED INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. HODOGRAPH SIZE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MORE THAN 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMIC LIMITING FACTORS.
...NRN AND CNTRL CA...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE EWD INTO CA ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
REGIONS.
..DIAL.. 01/18/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment