DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310721
SWODY3
SPC AC 310720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY ON
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER AMPLITUDE COUNTERPART TO THE SOUTH WILL EJECT
ENE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WEAKLY PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NRN STREAM BY 12Z/03. THE WEAK LOW THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY WILL ACCELERATE/DEVELOP ENE OFF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. A CDFNT WILL FOLLOW...SETTLING SEWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TO THE W...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
WEST COAST IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION. WHILE THE PARENT VORTEX WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SRN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENE THROUGH NWRN MEXICO AND INTO THE DESERT SW
AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FL...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY AS THE EJECTING UPR TROUGH GRAZES THE REGION AND THE
CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA. MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND LAPSE RATES TOO POOR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. MOREOVER...DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OVER
THE ATLC WATERS WILL VEER THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LESSENING
SHEAR/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CDFNT. THUS...SVR WEATHER DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY.

...SWRN STATES...
BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC AND GULF OF CA MOISTURE NWD
INTO SRN CA...AZ AND NRN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WITH ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA AND PERHAPS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SVR TSTMS.

..RACY.. 01/31/2010

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