SWOD48
SPC AC 190854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 5 AND 6...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING LARGE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. A LARGE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT INTRUSION OF CP AIR IN WAKE OF EJECTING IMPULSE THURSDAY WILL
NOT EXTEND FAR INTO THE GULF. AS A RESULT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL ADVECT NWD WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EAST
OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. FORCED BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STORMS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES
SUNDAY. AS IS TYPICAL IN HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR AND
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL.. 01/19/2010
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