SWOD48
SPC AC 310943
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2010
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MAIN ATTENTION LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
UPR TROUGHS THAT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS
QUITE A VARIABILITY IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. RECENT MODEL TRENDS PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON
THE NRN STREAM ENERGY AND WITH SLOWER TIMING. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN OFFERING A
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AND FASTER SRN STREAM WAVE. UNCERTAINTY ALSO
ARISES ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW AMPLIFIED THE SRN STREAM ENDS UP BEING.
ATTM...IT APPEARS BEST TO NOT OUTLOOK A SEVERE WEATHER AREA UNTIL
BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY IS ESTABLISHED.
..RACY.. 01/31/2010
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