SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192353
CAZ000-200130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192353Z - 200130Z
BKN/SEGMENTED BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD 35-40 KT
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH ROUGHLY 0130Z...BEFORE ENTERING SIERRAS
AND WEAKENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL APCHG SVR LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE.
VWPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- MODIFIED FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
BACKING/ENHANCEMENT OF SFC FLOW -- SHOW ENLARGED 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS
WITH ENHANCED SFC STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. SRH AROUND 150 J/KG IS
EVIDENT IN 0-1 KM LAYER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION VECTOR DOES CROSS
HODOGRAPH AROUND 2 KM AGL. MOSTLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE FAVORS
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED/SMALL BOWS WITH CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH SFC TEMPS ONLY IN LOW 50S F AND
WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPE GENERALLY
BELOW 100 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. COOLING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS BAND
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC AIR MASS FROM CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH SHEAR-LIMITING CHARACTERISTIC OF VEERING SFC FLOW...FURTHER
SHOULD REDUCE ALREADY MRGL SVR THREAT ONCE THIS BAND PASSES.
..EDWARDS.. 01/19/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
LAT...LON 36242086 37032131 37972197 38542243 39032238 39432184
39392153 38572101 37552032 36811957 36311986 36122028
36242086
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