SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200035
AZZ000-CAZ000-200230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CA AND SWRN AZ.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 200035Z - 200230Z
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS
IMPERIAL/LOWER CO VALLEY REGION AND EWD INTO SRN AZ...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO JUSTIFY WW.
BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OVER SRN CA IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN AZ DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BENEATH LEADING
EDGE OF ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL COOLING/DESTABILIZATION RELATED TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...AMIDST SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
TSTMS. VWP AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING FROM YUM INDICATE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR REGIME THAT EARLIER CHARACTERIZED COASTAL SRN CA
CONVECTIVE REGIME IS MOVING/SPREADING EWD OVER THIS REGION...BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT STRAIGHTER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND ABOUT 50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABLE
LAYER OBSERVED FARTHER E IN 00Z TUS RAOB IS REMOVED BENEATH
MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS APCHG 60 F AND DEW POINTS MID 50S
YIELDING MLCAPE 100-400 J/KG. MAIN OFFSETTING FACTOR FOR SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL BE RELATED TO COMBINATION OF PRIOR COOLING/STABILIZATION
FROM PRECIP...AND ONSET OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.
..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 32671502 33121548 33791518 34171447 34261363 34101301
33431231 32391207 31781245 32491483 32611477 32731470
32671502
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