Tuesday, January 19, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0015

ACUS11 KWNS 200036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200035
AZZ000-CAZ000-200230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CA AND SWRN AZ.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200035Z - 200230Z

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS
IMPERIAL/LOWER CO VALLEY REGION AND EWD INTO SRN AZ...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO JUSTIFY WW.

BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL ASCENT OVER SRN CA IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN AZ DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BENEATH LEADING
EDGE OF ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL COOLING/DESTABILIZATION RELATED TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...AMIDST SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
TSTMS. VWP AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDING FROM YUM INDICATE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR REGIME THAT EARLIER CHARACTERIZED COASTAL SRN CA
CONVECTIVE REGIME IS MOVING/SPREADING EWD OVER THIS REGION...BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT STRAIGHTER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND ABOUT 50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABLE
LAYER OBSERVED FARTHER E IN 00Z TUS RAOB IS REMOVED BENEATH
MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS APCHG 60 F AND DEW POINTS MID 50S
YIELDING MLCAPE 100-400 J/KG. MAIN OFFSETTING FACTOR FOR SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL BE RELATED TO COMBINATION OF PRIOR COOLING/STABILIZATION
FROM PRECIP...AND ONSET OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.

..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 32671502 33121548 33791518 34171447 34261363 34101301
33431231 32391207 31781245 32491483 32611477 32731470
32671502

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: