MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0023

ACUS11 KWNS 201950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201949
TXZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201949Z - 202115Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW
ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT WHICH STALLED FROM S-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX EARLIER
TODAY HAS SINCE RETREATED NWD TO VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER IN
RESPONSE TO THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SERN CO.
AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING WLY WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AS OF 19Z.

DEEPER PBL MIXING INVOF AND IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S
INTO LOWER 70S. BASED ON 18Z FWD SOUNDING...TEMPERATURES OF
MID/UPPER 70S WOULD ELIMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST RUC/SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING COUPLED
WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF STORM INITIATION
AFTER 21-23Z.

BOTH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED VWP/PROFILER DATA
INDICATE SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN LLJ IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN.

..MEAD.. 01/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32439934 33429937 33889905 33969855 33709765 33019720
31649719 31139802 31539888 32439934

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