SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202022
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-202145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202022Z - 202145Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. INSPECTION OF
LOCAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY
LOW-LEVEL WAA WITH STORMS LIKELY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BASED ON
OBSERVED MOTIONS. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S AS
OF 20Z...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG.
WHILE THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SRN HIGH PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
W OF REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IT APPEARS THE PERSISTENT
WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUSTAINING THIS
STORM ACTIVITY.
CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN A WIND PROFILE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100-200 M2/S2. AS SUCH...THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL FORMATION IS
INCREASING WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
..MEAD.. 01/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29959414 30469462 31089456 31739369 31959265 31989131
31529088 30849107 30409152 30179259 29959414
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