SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232203
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-232300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NEWD TO SERN AR /
NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232203Z - 232300Z
THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NEWD INTO SERN AR AND
POSSIBLY FURTHER E INTO PARTS OF NWRN MS. A WW MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE.
RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION OF A LINEAR BAND OF STORMS FROM 25 MI TXK TO
NEAR LFK. A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR ERN TX TO MID 50S ACROSS SRN AR IS
CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. FURTHER W...A MID/UPPER SPEED MAX IS RAPIDLY MOVING
EWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION DENOTED ON WV IMAGERY NOSING INTO THE ARKLATEX ATTM.
SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IS NOTED WITH 2 MB/HR PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS SERN AR WHERE AN INTENSIFYING LLJ IS FORECAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST/MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH TIME...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STRENGTH OF SHEAR THROUGH THE PROFILE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE NE THIS EVENING.
AS SUCH...A WW IS POSSIBLE IF THE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE.
..SMITH.. 01/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31519483 32479435 34089329 34759226 34809104 34489055
33789066 32669150 31689295 31379380 31289455 31519483
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