Saturday, February 6, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070042
SWODY1
SPC AC 070040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST SAT FEB 06 2010

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/PLATEAU...
THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. INITIAL STRONG
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE
SPREADING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT...THROUGH PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE JUST NOW NOSING INTO THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN...WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB
TEMPS OF -24-28C/.

THIS COULD SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH
02-03Z...ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BETTER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING...AS
THE FORCING INTERACTS WITH MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS IS UNCLEAR...BUT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AND DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THIS COULD IMPACT THE PHOENIX AREA BY 12Z...BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO THE PROGGED
WEAKNESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

..KERR.. 02/07/2010

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