SWODY1
SPC AC 071245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2010
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLATEAU/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH
INTENSE NRN STREAM LOW SETTLING SWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK
ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
SPREADING FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX
OVERNIGHT.
INTENSE ASCENT AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
STREAM IMPULSE WILL SUSTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING FROM AZ INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HERE...OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE
THREAT.
MORE ROBUST...BUT ELEVATED...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LLJ...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18C AT H5/ AND
WARMING/MOISTENING AROUND H85-H8...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-750 J/KG MUCAPE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL TX TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND COULD
SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVER CENTRAL TX...AND
MAY SUPPORT HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
..EVANS.. 02/07/2010
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