Friday, February 19, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190532
SWODY1
SPC AC 190531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST THU FEB 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE AXIS WILL BE UNDERCUT BY
COMPACT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS LOWER AMPLITUDE
DOWNSTREAM DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. ERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WAS CROSSING 130W WITH LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDING
SLOWER AND LOWER /IN LATITUDE/ WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH ON THE
COAST OF SRN CA BY 12 UTC SATURDAY.

LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSING MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES EAST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WILL THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.

...CNTRL/SRN CA COAST/COASTAL RANGES...
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THIS
PERIOD AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SRN CA. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. RECENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST A FORCED BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
PRIMARILY OFFSHORE BENEATH THE COLD CORE LOW/TROUGH...STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER WINDS/SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LATEST INDICATIONS WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KT NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO
50KT IS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT EVEN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

..CARBIN.. 02/19/2010

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