Sunday, February 28, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281946
SWODY1
SPC AC 281944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2010

VALID 282000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM/SERN CO AND INTO FAR W TX AS
WELL AS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING AS
A RESULT OF THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW/TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN
NM.

AS THE UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
EWD...LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NM INTO MAINLY
THE SRN HALF OF TX OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK/SUB-SEVERE.

..GOSS.. 02/28/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 28 2010/

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS MUCH AZ/NM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD AND INTO PARTS OF TX/OK
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE RISK OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

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