SWODY1
SPC AC 031258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED FEB 03 2010
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NOAM THIS PERIOD...WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF THE WLYS EXTENDING FROM NRN BC/AB ESE INTO THE NERN
STATES. IN WEAKER SRN AND MIDDLE BRANCHES...MULTI-PART TROUGH NOW
ENTERING ORE AND NWRN MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY E TO THE RCKYS BY 12Z
THU. AT LWR LVLS...EXPANSIVE POLAR SFC HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN STATES. WEAK/DISORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEST. A SMALL SFC LOW LIKELY WILL FORM
LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /E OF BRO/ AS
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH/CSTL FRONT OVER REGION.
...SE AZ/SRN NM ESE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY INTO S TX...
WAA WILL INCREASE/SPREAD E ACROSS THE SWRN AND INTO THE
S CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THU...AHEAD OF SRN MEMBER OF APPROACHING UPR
TROUGH. WITH COOL CP AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
RCKYS...ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF HIGH THETA-E IN SSW TO SWLY MID/UPR LVL
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MERIDIONAL NATURE OF FLOW...THUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. BUT DEEP/SEASONABLY MOIST PROFILES AND
ASCENT MAY YIELD SCTD EMBEDDED TSTMS. AN AREA OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED STORMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU OFF THE
S TX GULF CST...WHERE LWR LVL ASCENT WILL FOCUS NEAR CSTL FRONT.
..CORFIDI.. 02/03/2010
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