SWODY1
SPC AC 060045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2010
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN FLORIDA...
...ERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS
EVENING. BUT...AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OUTER BANKS AREA BY 04-05Z...RISING SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN ITS WARM SECTOR COULD YIELD AT LEAST VERY WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE
OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND
STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH A 70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
...SRN FLORIDA...
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
KEYS AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING MIAMI...THROUGH 02-03Z.
THEREAFTER...AS A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...STABILIZING TRENDS AND VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS WILL ENSUE.
..KERR.. 02/06/2010
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